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msc04


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                    HAVING CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICATIONS



                                            David Deaver
                                         Fluke Corporation
                                            PO Box 9090
                                         Everett, WA 98206
                                            425-446-6434
                                      [email protected]

Abstract: This paper presents some of the            unique specification would have to be assigned
challenges      in     creating      instrument      to each instrument, taking into account its actual
specifications     from     a    manufacturer's      performance and the operating environment. In
perspective and some of the difficulties             practice, this is done by many laboratories when
using specifications as an estimate of               characterizing a standard but is seldom done by
uncertainty from a user's perspective.               the manufacturer.
Despite the difficulties, specifications are the
most common means of determining the                 Manufacturing Yield Targets
Type B uncertainty for the standard when
making a GUM (Guide to Uncertainty of                Though specifications may be stated with a
Measurement)         compliant       uncertainty     confidence, typically between 95% and 99.7%,
analysis. An explanation is presented for the        all the points tested on the production line must
practice of providing 95% and 99%                    be measured within the specification limits
confidence specifications, warranting only           before the product can be shipped. For a
the 99% specifications, and verifying the 99%        standard resistor, whose value is specified at a
specifications to 95% confidence.                    95% confidence level to be within limits centered
                                                     about the nominal value for the resistor, we
   THE BASIS OF SPECIFICATIONS                       could expect to have to re-trim 5% of the
                                                     standards before they could be shipped.
Simply stated, specifications are an implied         Specifying a complex instrument at the true 95%
contract between a buyer and seller of a piece of    confidence level for each point would be a
equipment. The seller expects to be paid if the      manufacturing disaster. For example, each
product performs within its specifications and the   Fluke Model 5520A Multiproduct Calibrator is
buyer expects to receive an instrument which         tested at 552 points on the production line prior
lives up to the promises made in the data sheet.     to shipment. If each of the points has a 95%
Specifications, however, may or may not be a         probability of being found in tolerance, there
                                                                                 552
very good representation of the product's actual     would only be a 0.95            = 0.00000000051%
performance. The manufacturer considers a            chance of finding all the points within the
number of factors when establishing the              specification limits if the points are independent!
specifications:                                      Even if we estimate 100 independent points
                                                     (about 2 per range for each function), we would
                                                                             100
Actual Instrument Performance                        still have only a 0.95 = 0.6% chance of being
                                                     able to ship the product. Figure 1 shows the
One would hope there is some correlation             probability of an instrument passing all points
between the actual performance of an                 tested if the points are independent and if all
instrument and its specifications. Ideally, the      points     have    normal       probability density
specification would correspond exactly to the        distributions with the same confidence interval,
uncertainty. To approach the ideal, however, a       95%, 99%, or 99.7%.
                                                                             Competitive and Market Needs
 1E+00
                                                                 99.7%
  1E-01
                                                                             If there is not a compelling need to make
  1E-02
                                                                             specifications as tight as absolutely possible,
  1E-03
                                                                99%          there is considerable benefit to the manufacturer
  1E-04
                                                                             to keep them loose in order to enjoy high yields
  1E-05
                            95%
                                                                             and low warranty costs. Similarly, for the user, it
  1E-06                                                                      is nice to have higher confidence the unit is
  1E-07                                                                      performing within the specification limits and
  1E-08 0             200         400         600         800         1000
                                                                             enjoy long calibration intervals. Often, however,
  1E-09                                                                      manufacturers have specsmanship battles with
  1E-10
                     Num ber of Independent Points Tested (N)
                                                                             their competitors, each wanting to have the
                                                                             better specifications. And users ask for tighter
Fig. 1 Probability of all N Points In-Tolerance                              specs on test equipment to maintain low
                                                                             uncertainties and high TURs (Test Uncertainty
For our example of 100 independent points, on
                                                                             Ratios) for their calibrations. As we have seen
average, we would have to design the individual
                                                                             however, along with tighter specifications comes
points to a 99.95% confidence level to have 95%
                                                                             the adverse impact on the yields, warranty
confidence that the instrument would pass the
                                                                             costs, and percent-in-tolerance numbers.
complete verification test. Table 1 lists the
confidence levels for individual points (P)
required for an overall instrument yield (Y) of                              Environmental Conditions
95%, 99% and 99.7%.
                                                                             Specifications for an instrument must take into
   N               Y=95%            Y=99%              Y=99.7%               account its operating environment. Though most
                                                                             instruments are specified for a broad
   1       0.95        0.99        0.997                                     temperature range such as 0-50 



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